New poll suggests the Tories could get a majority of 6 seats

The April poll by Communicate Research for the Independent this morning has some bleak news for Labour as it prepares for next week’s elections and the coming leadership change. For the survey reports the following with changes on last month – CON 36%(+1): LAB 27%(-4): LD 22%(+2).

The detailed data, which helpfully is published this morning as well (other pollsters please note), reports shares for the minor parties of SNP 4%: GRN 3%: BNP 2%: UKIP 1%: PC 1%.

A real worry for Tories, surely, is that in spite of the Labour collapse their party is not appearing as a big beneficiary although Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus suggests that these figures would give the party a majority.

UKIP, the hope of those on the right of the party opposed to David Cameron, records another miserly score. The Lib Dems must be pleased with the 22% showing as they approach next week’s election.

According to Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report the firm is now following the practice of the other telephone pollsters, Populus and ICM, and has adopted past vote weighting. This means that comparisons with pre-March CR surveys when the firm was recording the best Labour figures should be avoided.

For Labour the only consolation is that when you are down as low as 27% there is really only one direction you can go and the scope for a Brown bounce is even larger.

The April ICM poll which was expected in the Guardian this morning seems to have been held over. It will be interesting to see if it shows the same trends.

Mike Smithson