What behind these big shifts in opinion?

I’ve just come across some fascinating data on the Ipsos-Mori website which might prove to be highly significant at the next election.

For as the charts show there has been a significant move by public sector workers away from Labour in a relatively short time. If they don’t return that could present a big challenge for Gordon Brown.

For after the big expansion of the public sector jobs under Gordon’s management of the economy one would have expected that Labour would have been the main beneficiary. If this Ipsos-Mori data is correct then that is not the case.

A particular challenge is that while the public sector has been expanded so too have the public’s expectations. The case that higher taxes should be levied for better public services has generally been accepted – even now by the Tory leadership if not the party. The problem is that this has led to greater pressure in all sorts of ways on those who work in the public services and maybe this is fuelling anti-government sentiment.

It should be noted that the charts relate to Mori “all naming a party” poll numbers – not the “100% certain to vote” figures that make up the firm’s headline numbers. Given the latter are normally less favourable for Labour then this could add to the concerns.

Mike Smithson