Brown – the solution or part of the problem?

In the wake of the biggest ICM lead for the Tories since 1987 the former Home Secretary, Charles Clarke, has called on the young Environment Secretary, David Miliband, to run for the leadership against Gordon Brown.

Whether Miliband will heed the call we do now know but there’s clearly a lot of questioning going on in the party at the moment and a group that could be influential might be the MPs in marginal seats who stand to lose their jobs if current poll trends continue.

The following table has been reproduced from Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus site and shows what seats would change hand if Britain voted along the lines of yesterday’s ICM poll and the seat distribution went according to the Baxter calculation.

Of course these are extraordinary times with the cash for honours case dominating the headlines and Labour’s change of leader yet to happen. The massive question is whether Gordon Brown as PM will help or hinder the party’s position.

Some of the polls have suggested that things would be worse for Labour with Gordon as leader. But, of course, nobody can really foresee how the political climate will change when Tony Blair is out of the way and there is a new occupant at Number 10.

But if you were a Labour MP on the following list would you be welcoming Brown or be fearful that the polls might be right? The names listed are those who won at the General Election and does not take account of by elections.

In the betting Gordon is 0.27/1 to become Labour leader.

Mike Smithson