New poll puts Cameron’s party at 11% ahead

An ICM poll for the Sunday Mirror this morning provides good news for both the Tories and the Lib Dems but bad news for Labour. The headline vote share with changes on the ICM Guardian poll nearly a fortnight ago are CON 40% (nc): LAB 29% (-2): LD 21% (+2).

The main move is the 2 point switch from Labour to the Lib Dems.

The 11% Labour deficit is the biggest the pollster has recorded, as far as I can see, since 1987. This is also the first time since Cameron became leader that two ICM polls in succession have shown Tory shares of 40%.

This reinforces other recent polls from Populus and Communicate Research which recorded 38% and 40% Tory shows and indicates that there has been a “step change” over what was being seen at the end of 2006.

This is a strange period as we await the change in the Labour leadership and the outcome of the cash for honours investigation and it might be that these latest numbers are flattering David Cameron.

But will Gordon, if it is indeed him, be able to pull back such a margin?

Mike Smithson