Examining the details from last week’s ICM and YouGov polls

We have had to wait nearly a week for this but these are the details from the poll that has been the talk of Westminster and which has promoted a big change in the Brown price in the Labour leadership betting market.

The ICM full data is from the survey last Tuesday that showed Labour 13% behind if Gordon Brown is named as leader against Cameron’s Tories and Ming’s Lib Dems.

The above is a snap-shot and shows how voting preferences changed compared with the main figures when the named leader question was asked.

Cameron holds on to 96% of Tory voters and picks up 6% of the Labour ones and 7% of the Lib Dems.

Brown only retains 80% of the declared Labour support but picks a big cross-over from the Lib Dems.

Ming’s Lib Dems see their total decline to 73% with 11% going to Labour and 6% to the Tories.

For me the big question is whether people are switching to the Tories because Brown is named or whether this is simply the Tories being helped when their party is linked with the name of their leader. My guess is that is is mostly the latter.

The same story is repeated in the detail from YouGov’s poll on Friday when its forced choice question was put.

Again Gordon Brown is failing to secure the support of a significant proportion of declared Labour voters.

Mike Smithson