The internet pollster reinforces the trend picked up by ICM

Today’s YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph shows almost no change in the overall voting intentions on the last survey by the internet pollster – but provides more evidence following this week’s ICM poll of growing doubts on the electoral appeal of the Chancellor, Gordon Brown.

The headline figures are with changes on the last YouGov survey two and a half weeks ago are:- CON 37% (nc): LAB 32% (nc): LD 17% (-1)

There’s been a big change, however, in responses to YouGov’s forced choice question – “If you had to choose, which would you prefer to see after the next election, a Conservative Government led by David Cameron or a Labour Government led by Gordon Brown?” This was the split with comparisons on last month CON 43% (-1): LAB 34% (-4)

To put the Brown-Cameron question in context – exactly one year ago when the Tory leader was enjoying his media honeymoon the split was CON 37% – LAB 43%.

This change on the month is very similar to that recorded in ICM’s voting intention question published on Tuesday when a big swing to the Tories on the month was recorded when respondents were asked how they would vote if it was Brown’s Labour against Cameron’s Tories and Ming’s Lib Dems.

There’s also been a decline in Brown’s position people were asked “who would make the best Prime Minister?” Last month Cameron had a 2% margin over Brown – this is now 4%.

My reading is that confidence in Gordon appears to erode when he does things like last week’s English World Cup bid announcement. He appears to want the top job too much and this is not something that voters warm to. If he could do “humble” his succession would be 100% assured.

All this is reinforcing doubts about the Chancellor in the Labour leadership betting where the Brown price has eased to 0.25/1. Me? I’m keeping my money on Gordon and will be putting more on if the price moves much further.

Mike Smithson