Is now the time to bet on a hung parliament?

A new YouGov poll for today’s Sunday Times shows a small movement from the Tories to Labour and that the “others” total remains constant. These are today’s shares with comparisons on the last YouGov poll at the end of January: CON 37% (-1): LAB 32% (+1): LD 18% (nc): OTH 13% (nc).

Putting these numbers into the seat calculators produces a CON 277: LAB 294: LD 47: OTH 32 seat distribution with the Wells calculator and CON 297: LAB 290: LD 30: OTH 33 seat with Martin Baxter

The poll is very much in line with all the recent polls and really we are waiting for Labour’s succession before proper judgements can be made about the likely outcome of the General Election.

The only slight worry for Labour and Gordon Brown is that YouGov have the Tories leading by 2% on the question of economic competence.

The mood of the country is that there is a desire for change but voters are yet to be convinced that it should be to the Tories.

A result that deprives Labour of power but does not put the Tories back in with a majority looks increasingly likely. The big question might be as to which party has most seats in a hung parliament situation.

In the betting a the “hung parliament” price of 1.34/1 is starting to look like a good bet.

Mike Smithson