What if Tories tactically vote on the same scale as Labour supporters? All the projections, like the ones on UK Polling Report and ElectoralCalculus, on how specific poll ratings would translate into Commons seats are based on the notion of a uniform national swing (UNS). These show, broadly that just to be ahead on seats the Tories need a 5% margin on votes nationally and to get a majority then they should be aiming for a 10% lead. But all…
Where should your money go? It has become almost a New Year custom for one of the bookmakers to open a betting market on which minister will be first to be sacked/resign during that year. For 2007 everything is very much up in the air as we wait for the dramatic announcement from Tony Blair about his departure plans. But is he worth his favourite status? The price looks a bit tight to me. Is it possible that there could…
Shouldn’t there be separate polls and a separate swing calculation? Whenever a poll comes out we all rush to make the same point that the Tories Cameron’s need to have a 5% margin to win most seats and 10% to secure a majority. This is finally getting through to the markets and now a Labour majority has now taken over from a Tory one as second place in the betting on the outcome of the next election. Yet are we…
Get your entries in now for the 2007 Prize Prediction Competition Please post your entries in the comments thread below by 2359 GMT on January 3rd 2007. PLEASE DO NOT USE this thread for comments on the questions – instead use the previous threads. On Christmas Day 2007 who will be…? (50 points for each correct answer except where stated) 1. Prime Minister (bonus of 150 points for correct answers that are not Gordon Brown) 2. Leader of the Opposition…