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But is a Mori lead good news for Brown-Blair?

There’s the monthly Ipsos-Mori poll out in the Sun this morning but the only reference to it appears to be in the above extract reproduced from the online editorial page. At the time of writing there does not seem to be a story with the figures.

What we have suggests that the main voting figures put Labour ahead. This article will be updated when the full information is available. For the past two months the pollster that does not use past vote weighting to ensure it has a politically balanced sample has had Labour behind by two and one per cent. From the “Sun Says” piece it appears that there’s now a Labour lead of about the same magnitude.

UPDATE: There is now a link to a story on the poll which only adds to the confusion. Thankfully the transparency requirements of the British Polling Council mean that Mori will publish fuller figures within the next few days. This is rubbish reporting.

Whatever figures Mori reports I always advise that it should be treated with caution because of its methodology and for this reason its monthly figures are not included in the PBC Polling Average.

Today’s survey is in sharp contrast to last week’s Populus poll which had Labour 7% behind. More than half of those who told Populus that they had voted at the General Election said that they had gone with Labour. The party, of course, only got 36% and the pollster uses a weighting formula taking into account possible false recall before it produces its headline figures. Mori does not do this.

Meeting with Mori. Next week I am having a breakfast session with senior members of Ipsos-Mori and I am looking forward to hearing their views about the approach the firm follows.

YouGov trackers. No news of the YouGov trackers on the popularity of leading politicians – the subject of the new betting market from IGIndex. I’ve got a bet that Cameron will be down on the week and I know others are waiting for news about their investments. The survey closed at 5pm yesterday.

SECOND UPDATE: These are figures for the Mori poll as they appear on the pollster’s website.

So you can pick whichever questions you want to make the comparision that suits your position. But as no voting intention shares are recorded the Sun’s editorial is wrong to draw any conclusions about voting.

Mike Smithson