The celebrity pollster gives his verdict on the junior senator for Illinois

The Republican pollster whose “focus groups” on BBC’s Newsnight programmes have become a regular part of the political scene in the UK has given Barack Obama a big publicity boost in a new book that has just been published and is covered in today’s Sunday Telegraph.

Terms like “the new JFK” have been tagged to many politicians in the 44 years since the killing in Dallas and Luntz has never been known to undersell his judgements. Yet I believe that his description is spot on and am continuing to bet on Obama for the Democratic nomination. The current 5.2/1 seems great value. And if he gets the nomination I think he would have a great chance of going all the way.

The mood in the post-Iraq US is very much for change and Obama’s message offering optimism seems to chime with the public mood.

The phrase used in the report of “near rock star status” could not be more apt. That’s how he is being presented and that is how is is being perceived.

Being able to convey optimism is such a powerful quality. People want to look forward to better things and politicians that raise their hopes do well. I rate Luntz’s talent spotting abilities – he was right on Cameron and he’s right on Obama. My money is continuing to go on.

This is how Hillary Clinton’s price has been moving on the US-focussed Tradesports market.

Mike Smithson