Where should your money go?

It has become almost a New Year custom for one of the bookmakers to open a betting market on which minister will be first to be sacked/resign during that year.

For 2007 everything is very much up in the air as we wait for the dramatic announcement from Tony Blair about his departure plans. But is he worth his favourite status? The price looks a bit tight to me.

Is it possible that there could be ructions before Blair’s departure and which minister could it involve?

Normally you would always say that whoever was Home Secretary was the most vulnerable. Punters made a killing on David Blunkett at the end of 2004 and, of course, Charles Clarke was the first to get the boot during 2006.

But John Reid has a look of permanence about him and even the 18/1 does not look tempting.

What’s happening, of course, is that with Blair’s power declining by the day ministers are becoming more bold in what they do. Could we see Tony having to make an example of somebody just to show that he is in charge? That’s possible.

Could the first casulalty be a Brownite loyalist who has to be made an example of – Douglas Alexander for instance at 28/1.

Good betting during 2007.

The PBC POLITICAL FORECASTER OF THE YEAR COMPETITION. Entries have to be posted by 2359 GMT tomorrow night.

Mike Smithson