Browsed by
Month: December 2006

The Dave “one year in” hype: the PBC contribution

The Dave “one year in” hype: the PBC contribution

Month by month how Cameron’s first year compares with Blair’s With virtually every political commentator wanting to get into the act of writing something about Cameron’s first year I thought I would take a different tack and compare his fortunes with Tony Blair in the twelve months after he got the Labour leadership. By taking the Mori and ICM poll ratings from Blair’s first year in 1994-95 I’ve produced two charts comparing the Blair poll movements with those that Cameron…

Read More Read More

YouGov: LDs prefer a Cameron win to a Brown one

YouGov: LDs prefer a Cameron win to a Brown one

What could this mean for tactical voting? Detailed data from the November YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph, has the pollster showing for the first time that Lib Dem supporters prefer a David Cameron Tory government to a Gordon Brown-led Labour one. The views of declared LD supporters run against the trend of the poll where the Tory leader saw a decline in his lead amongst all the sample to CON 43% – Lab 34% to the question “If you…

Read More Read More

Tories take 9% lead in new ICM poll

Tories take 9% lead in new ICM poll

But Brown rated “Best PM” by 29-25% A new ICM poll for today’s News of the World shows a sharp increase in the Tory lead over the past survey by the pollster twelve days ago. The shares are with changes on the last survey CON 39% (+2): LAB 30% (-2): LD 20% (-2). In slightly contrasting figures Gordon Brown was rated at 29-25% over David Cameron when those in the survey were asked who they thought would be the “best…

Read More Read More

Are punters being over-optimistic about Cameron’s chances?

Are punters being over-optimistic about Cameron’s chances?

Introducing the PBC Average of Weighted Polls With David Cameron set to celebrate his first year as Tory leader on Wednesday we thought it would be a good time to launch PBC’s new measure of polling performance – the average of weighted polls. The numbers featured in the chart are from those firms which employ some system to ensure that their samples are not skewed by their methodology and are also members of the British Polling Council. The latest Average,…

Read More Read More

Sean Fear’s Friday slot

Sean Fear’s Friday slot

Are Labour’s southern Problems getting worse? Some weeks ago, I wrote about the return of “Labour’s Southern Discomfort”, the instinctive rejection of Labour by Southern voters, in the 1980s. This showed up markedly in May’s local election results, and is now even more pronounced in recent local by-election results. Labour support, in local by-elections, has generally held up better in the North than in the South, particularly in the North West, where the party has actually gained four seats since…

Read More Read More

Tory YouGov lead cut to 5%

Tory YouGov lead cut to 5%

The internet pollster follows the trend of the other firms With David Cameron due to celebrate his first year as Tory leader in five days time the latest survey by YouGov for the Daily Telegraph reinforces the trends in all the other polls in November bar Mori showing a decline in his party position in relation to Labour. The figures for today’s poll with comparisons on the October survey are: CON 37 (-2): LAB 32 (nc): LD 16 (nc). So…

Read More Read More