What will be the size of the “Brown Bounce“?

A key question in our Predicting 2007 competition, to be published tomorrow, will be on the effect of a new Labour leader. What will be the increase in the average of Populus/ICM/YouGov surveys of a new person taking over. Here the change in the PBC Polling Average in the first month is what we are seeking. Also what will Labour’s position be by the same measure two months afterwards?

Another of the questions will be “who will be Prime Minister on Christmas Day 2007?.” On the face of it this is such a certainty that to encourage those who do not simply write “Brown” there will be a special bonus of quadruple points to those who name someone other than the Chancellor who get it right.

For perfectly credible answers could be Tony Blair, David Cameron or one of the Labour alternatives such as David Miliband or John Reid.

On the same there another question will be to give the precise date of Blair’s last day as PM.

Other questions will be “how many candidates for leader will there be?” and who will get the Deputy role?

There will also be questions on Labour performance in the May elections. What will be the number of losses/gains in the Scottish and Welsh parliament elections and in the local council elections on the same day.

We do not know if there will be any Westminster by elections but if there are what will be the average change compared with the General Election in Labour’s vote share?

The thread listing all the questions and where you should put your predictions will be published on Sunday. This is a normal comments thread.

Mike Smithson