What are we to make of “The Mole’s” prediction?

One of the great additions to the UK online media in the past year or so has been the news magazine The First Post. A feature I always look at are the regular articles under the banner “The Mole” who is billed as a “Downing Street Insider.

Shortly before the Chancellor rose to his feet to make his pre-Budget statement “The Mole” published a piece suggesting that Tony Blair will be leaving office much earlier than most commentators and punters have been suggesting. The writer suggests that the “smart money” is going on Blair making his historic announcement in March after Gordon Brown’s final budget.

This would pave the way for a departure immediately after the May elections when Labour is expected to do badly in the Scottish and Welsh parliament elections and in the local council areas which have ballots this year.

The Mole goes on: “..If Blair announces early but goes after the May elections he will still clock up ten years as PM and enter the record books as Labour’s longest-serving premier. It would suit Gordon Brown too. With the elections falling in between the end of the Blair regime and the start of the Brown era, both men can avoid taking the rap for bad results.”

Describing Blair at the moment the report notes “This is a politician in a hurry. He wants to go as swiftly and painlessly as possible – not hang around until next July.”

The Betfair website is down at the moment but I will put a link up to the leaving date market as soon as it is back up.

UPDATE. The betting link is now up.

Mike Smithson