Does the latest price offer value for money?

After being sceptical for a long period about Gordon Brown’s chances of making it to Number 10 I changed my view in early October when the price moved to 0.56/1. I got enough on then to cover most of my betting on other contenders when it became clear that nobody else looked able to emerge.

As the chart shows there has been a very big change of sentiment since the period after the party conferences and the price has been tightening quite sharply until the last couple of days.

It’s now moved out a bit and the latest 0.25/1 might be a good punt for people who like to back sure-fire winners even if the prices are a bit low.

The only possible other contender is John Reid and all the polls suggest that he is far behind Gordon.

The only risk I can foresee is if ICM and YouGov, the most market sensitive pollsters, show sustained and increasing Labour deficits against the Tories and a sense of panic starts to break out. For these polls at current levels mean that 40-50 Labour MPs in marginal seats would be out of a job after the next election.

Mike Smithson