Is this the result of Murdoch’s ferocious attacks on the Tory leader After a week which has seen savage criticism by the Murdoch press on David Cameron and positive media coverage generally of Gordon Brown the November Populus poll in the Times shows the following shares with changes on last month – CON 36% (nc): LAB 33% (-2): LD20 % (+2). So the trend is in line with recent YouGov, ICM and Communicate Research polls but with the Tory margin…
How dangerous are things for the PM and his aides? Last July I put £50 on at 6/1 that Tony Blair would be arrested before the end of the year. It seemed worth a punt and the price though not generous appeared just about fair. Now things are moving quickly with threats of resignation said in to be in the air from the DPP if there is political interference with the process. It’s clear from the leaks that have been…
Will Populus record a Brown leadership bounce? For polling geeks like me the next few surveys are going to be fascinating and might be good pointers to the future. For the transition from Tony to Gordon is well under way and he’s now being portrayed daily in the media mostly in a positive light as the PM in waiting. If there is going to be a Brown succession bounce then we might see the first signs of it. This could…
What happens if the ratings aren’t turned round? How are voters going to react to what is looking increasingly inevitable by the day – that Gordon Brown will assume the Labour leadership and become Prime Minister without a cabinet level challenge? In a main editorial this weekend the Guardian considered the implications of what’s likely to happen under the headline “Sleepwalking towards succession” and argued strongly that “the party could gain by using the transition to consider and test its…
Can you predict who will control the House and Senate after Tuesday? House of Representatives (total seats 435). Predict the number of seats won by: Democrats Republicans Others Senate (total seats 100)Predict the number of seats held after the election by: Democrats Republicans Others Tie-Breaker What percentage of the vote will Joe Lieberman receive in the Senate race in Connecticut? Make your prediction to up to two decimal places. Scoring Your score in each case will be the absolute difference…
Will there be a double blow for Bush in Washington? With most pundits and polls suggesting that the Republicans will lose control of the House of Representatives in the US Mid Terms on Tuesday attention is focussing on the Senate where latest polls indicate that it is getting very close. According to Electoral-Vote.com both the Democrats and the Republicans are set to get 49 seats in the Senate with two states, Missouri and Virginia, currently tied. The betting markets are…
How the Minor Parties are Faring One theme which I have commented upon on several occasions is the increasing vote which is going to minor parties. Most opinion polls show “Others†on 10%+, with Communicate Research giving them more than 15%. I think it unlikely that their share in a general election would be as high as 15%, but that figure is certainly plausible in local elections. In May’s London Borough elections, for example, 16% voted for parties other than…
Is raising “hug-a-hoodie” again good or bad politics? Given the way that David Cameron’s “hug a hoodie” speech four months ago seemed to attract so much derision why is the Tory leader going back onto the same territory with his latest “tough love” for yobs speech? He’s called for “a lot more love” to be shown to young offenders as part of an effort to encourage good behaviour and has suggested that there is a more understanding approach as to…