But the Tory lead widens to 8% with Brown as Labour leader The headline General Election voting intention figures show a big improvement for Labour in this month’s ICM poll in the Guardian. The shares are with the changes on October CON 37% (-2): LAB 32% (+3): LD 22% (nc). This brings the pollster more into line with the other firms but still contrasts sharply with the 5% Labour lead in the same survey a year ago two weeks before…
Mori puts Brown 16% ahead of Reid for the leadership Partial details of the Mori survey for November have just been published on the Mori website and from the information that has been made available it looks as though there has been a steep decline in Labour support since October. Although we have not got the party shares the detail shows that 248 of the 980 who were surveyed said Labour with 466 saying other parties. By my calculation this…
Yet on the day nobody even mentioned it on PBC? With the honours probe hanging like a dark shadow over the government and being a dominant factor in the Blair exit date betting it is worth going back nearly eleven months to the Sunday Times investigation that sparked off the whole crisis for the government. For things look very different now than when the story first appeared. At the time the term “loans for peerages” was unknown and the building…
Was Blair doing the Chancellor a favour with his fighting imagery? As often happens in politics the initial reaction to a development or a speech can change quite drastically within a few days. Last Wednesday Tony Blair’s farewell Commons performance in a Queen’s speech debate was well received by commentators particularly his “put down” of David Cameron by threatening him with a “big fist” – a move seen as an endorsement of Gordon Brown. By yesterday there had been a…
What are we to make of today’s Observer story? We have now reached a stage, surely, where the only thing that should concern those who have risked money on Gordon Brown for leader is what Harold Macmillan described as “events dear boy, events”. The Brixton-born former Tory PM was responding to the question “what represented the greatest challenge for a statesman?” One of those “events”, if the Observer this morning is right, could be the honours probe. For according to…
Harry Hayfield on the changes that could end overnight counting Northern Ireland as we know is a law unto itself electorally. Not only do the norms of political convention not apply there (no Labour party or Liberal Democrats), but so the norms of electoral convention. For instance, can you see the returning officer in Sunderland South making a declaration at 10.42AM? Earlier this year the Election Administration Bill was discussed in Parliament and it suggested that maybe Northern Ireland was…
New polls dash hopes for the White House losers of 2000 and 2004 In the first round of ’08 White House polls since the US midterms there’s good news for Rudy Giuliani, John McCain ,Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama but bad news for the vote winner but electoral college loser of 2000, Al Gore, and the man who went to bed on November 4th 2004 believing the exit polls meant he was next President, John Kerry. With tight races for…
Focus on Watford Last night, I attended the Primary which chose the Conservative candidate for Watford, at the next election. Ian Oakley was chosen by a huge margin, on the first ballot. Ian is a friend of mine, and was Ali Miraj’s campaign manager in 2005. He worked enormously hard at the last election, and in my opinion, Watford made the right choice in selecting him. Watford incorporates all the wards on Watford Borough Council, together with five wards from…