Poll suggests that she could win 15% more votes for Labour

According to a YouGov poll reported in the Independent this morning 15% of voters said they would be “more likely” to support Labour if Harriet Harman was deputy leader.

Hilary Benn was in second place on this measure with 12% saying they would be more likely to vote Labour but none of the other contenders got into double figures. Hazel Blears – the party chair and other potential female candidate – was, according to the report, down at 7%.

It’s not clear from the newspaper who commissioned the survey and it might well have been a private poll produced by the Harman camp. If it was then we need to see the full detail of how the survey was carried out before coming to firm conclusions.

Political gamblers who risked their money on the Liberal Democrat leadership will recall how contenders tried to influence the race with private surveys and that by asking a different range of questions it is possible to come out with different results. With private polls the only information that’s likely to be made available is that which supports the line of the person or organisation paying.

Whatever this poll could put University of York graduate, Harman, into the favourite’s slot in the betting.

After the 2005 General Election Harman became a Minister of State in the Department for Constitutional Affairs with responsibilities including constitutional reform, legal aid and court processes.

In March this year she relinquished her Ministerial responsibilities for electoral administration and reform of the House of Lords to avoid any potential conflict of interest after her husband, the Treasurer of the Labour Party, Jack Dromey, announced that he would be investigating a number of loans made to the Labour Party which had not been disclosed to party officers.

Maybe a women doing well in the deputy race could prompt Betfair to open a betting market. So far the betting exchange has ignored repeated pleas from punters. Come on Betfair.

There’s no sign in the online edition of the Daily Telegraph of this month’s main YouGov voting intention survey. This must be due any day.

Mike Smithson