Mori puts Brown 16% ahead of Reid for the leadership

Partial details of the Mori survey for November have just been published on the Mori website and from the information that has been made available it looks as though there has been a steep decline in Labour support since October.

Although we have not got the party shares the detail shows that 248 of the 980 who were surveyed said Labour with 466 saying other parties. By my calculation this gives a figure of those expressing a preference of just under 35% for Labour before Mori’s rigid turnout filter has been applied. In October the comparative figure was 41%.

What has been published appears to be good news for Gordon Brown and bad news for John Reid. Although full voting intention data has not been made available yet – we have responses to two questions – “Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister — Gordon Brown or John Reid?” and “Who do you think best understands the problems facing Britain — Gordon Brown or John Reid?”.

To the “most capable PM” question the responses were Brown 36%: Reid 22%: None 18%. Amongst Labour supporters the split is Brown 59% – Reid 15% while amongst supporters of other parties it is Brown 32% – Reid 30%

On who “understands Britain’s problems best” the responses were Brown 36%: Reid 24%: None 16%. Amongst Labour supporters the split is Brown 36% – Reid 24% while amongst supporters of other parties it is Brown 32% – Reid 32%.

Hopefully the full details will be made available in the next day or so.

UPDATE: The poll was carried out for the Sun which obviously has the full voting intention data. Is this being held back because the numbers are not in line with what the paper wants? We’ll see if fuller information is made available tomorrow.

Mike Smithson