How long a standing ovation will the new leader receive?

Sir Menzies Campbell’s lasted five minutes, Tony Blair’s seven minutes, now spread betting firm IG Index has opened a market on how long a standing ovation David Cameron will receive after his closing speech tomorrow. The spread is between five-and-a-half and six minutes.

By comparison last year when he was a leadership contender the standing ovation went on for three minutes. Then, of course, there weren’t the “floor managers assisting in creating a show of unity.

Punters who think the Bournemouth audience won’t want their man outshone by the reception Tony Blair got may want to buy the spread at six minutes. In doing so for every minute over six the ovation lasts they will make their stake again. So if you buy at £10 a minute level and it goes on for say eight and a half minutes you will make: 8.5 (length of speech) minus six (‘buy’ point of the spread) = £25. If the speech is less than six minutes you lose £10 a minute by the difference.

For those who think it will be shorter you can “sell” at the price of five and a half minutes. So if the Bournemouth audience only stand and clap for one minute anyone who had sold the standing ovation spread would make: five-and-a-half (point at which they ‘sold’) minus one (length of standing ovation) = £45

It’s been such a long time since I’ve made a UK political bet where things will be resolved so quickly that I’ve gone for a buy. The party managers will ensure that the ovation goes on for a good long time – this is something the Tories are really good at.

There’s a good precedent – the 8 minutes and 45 seconds that Iain Duncan Smith got at the end of his speech in October 2003 – less than four weeks before members of the Parliamentary party effectively sacked him as leader when they passed a vote of no confidence. If Cameron gets near that length tomorrow I’ll come out with a nice little profit.

In addition, of course, there might be a a few IG Index punters in the audience who, no doubt, might want to keep the applause going!

UPDATE: The market is now available online.

Mike Smithson