Is his inability to take criticism his fatal flaw?

My biggest “person” bet of 2004 was a big lay when he was odds on that the former Governor of Vermont, Howard Dean, would not take the Democratic nomination. I risked a thousand or so after being advised by an academic friend in the state that Dean had furious temper and that sooner or later he would blow himself up – which it did.

My biggest person bet in 2005 was against David Davis getting the Tory leadership. Then I risked a lot more money because I could not see how someone who then had such poor communication skills could make it in such a prolonged campaign.

Now my biggest person bet ever will be that Gordon Brown will not succeed Tony Blair.

My reasoning is simple – everything I’ve observed and read about Gordon suggests that he cannot handle personal criticism.

This is why he is always so reluctant to put himself in the firing line – why he lets his juniors deal with the difficult issues at question time and why he avoids potentially difficult interviews.

During the coming months he’s going to have to break cover some time and when he does anything could happen. By allowing Blair to continue well into 2007 he has ensured that he will be subject to an extended period of intense scrutiny. Gordon, for all he has been a brilliant Chancellor, has not got the character to handle this.

Labour is choosing the next Prime Minister – Gordon cannot avoid putting his head above the parapet.

Although I will maintain my positive positions on Reid, Johnson, Benn and Hutton my major betting, when the price is right, will be lays on Brown.

Latest Labour leader prices are here

Mike Smithson