ICM find that only 37% think he’s created Britain’s economic success

The Guardian publishes more data this morning from its August ICM poll and focuses on the Labour’s record generally, and Gordon Brown’s performance in particular, in running the economy for the past nine and a bit years.

In findings that might have an impact on the Labour succession the pollster records that those surveyed split by 37%-52% on whether they thought Brown had been responsible for Britain’s economic success.

The paper’s Richard Adams describes this as “a blow to supporters of the chancellor who argue that his reputation as the architect of growth will pave his way to No 10. Even among Labour voters fewer than two out of three are willing to give him credit…the findings suggest that Labour may be losing its reputation for economic competence as memories of Black Wednesday and the recession of the early 1990s under John Major fade.”

To another question asking whether respondent’s families are better off since Labour came to power, 55% agreed against 41% who didn’t. The latter included 67% of Labour supporters. Adams also reports that the poll shows that “more than three-quarters, 77%, think people have become more selfish under Labour, while 78% agree that the rich have become richer.”

By 49%-41% the sample agreed that Labour policies had been responsible for “some prosperity” since the party came to power in 1997.On the impact of Gordon Brown’s flagship policy on reducing poverty “only 36% said fewer people now lived in poverty, while 57% disagreed.”

Overall the poll is in line with other recent surveys. Before the General election last year ICM found that Labour had a lead of 24% on the question “Irrespective of how you yourself will vote at the next election, which political party do you think is putting forward the best policies on The economy generally?”.

Today’s data and the changing perceptions of Labour economic performance might partially explain yesterday’s voting intention figures from the survey that had the Tories on 40% – nine points ahead.

A footnote to yesterday’s ICM poll story is that the detailed data shows that without past voting weighting the Tory 9% lead might have been bigger. The number of respondents saying they voted for the party in May 2005 was higher than the pollster’s targeted weighting amount and had to be scaled down. This is highly unusual because the norm is there are not enough people saying they voted Tory last time in phone poll samples and the proportion has to be scaled up.

Mike Smithson