How will the crisis affect Gordon & Dave’s career plans?

With Tony Blair returning to London today to a Labour party where he is increasingly isolated how is the crisis going to affect domestic politics? Will it be the platform that Gordon can use to take over the job that he regards as his?

And how is it going to impact on David Cameron’s General Election chances particularly after the warning from Tory funder, Stanley Kalms, about the party being too critical of Israel?

How are Brown’s “Dave the Chameleon” attacks going to compare with the Chancellor’s strategy of just shutting up about Blair’s controversial foreign policy initiatives?

There’s a strong argument for saying that if and when Gordon does take over he will give Labour a big boost. At one stroke Labour, it is said, will be free of all the bad things associated with Tony Blair and Gordon will get the benefit.

On the other hand Brown’s critics will ask why he stayed in there for so long – his very presence giving tacit support to Tony following the George Bush line whatever that was. A Brown resignation at a critical moment might have halted Blair.

Gordon has a good current excuse for saying nothing – he’s on paternity leave. But at some stage he’s going to have to come off the fence. If the Foreign Secretary can be critical of Tony’s approach why not the Chancellor?

Meanwhile the stream of announcements from the Home Office continues at a pace even though we are now in the holiday season. Is this John Reid’s way of reminding people that he could still pose a challenge?

David Cameron’s challenge is not quite as great because it’s different when you are in opposition. He needs a line that chimes with the public mood but still keeps the Stanley Kakms factions happy. Difficult? Yes. But if you can’t ride two horses at the same time then you shouldn’t be in the circus.

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Mike Smithson