ICM gives Labour a boost; YouGov is steady

In the wake of the Blaenau Gwent results, Labour supporters must have got some partial comfort from the ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph this weekend: Labour’s share had recovered by 3% to 35%, just one point behind the Tories on 36% (a 1% drop). The Liberal Democrats were unchanged at 18%. (The changes are relative to ICM’s previous poll published just 12 days before.)

The last survey from YouGov, however, as Mike Smithson pointed out on Friday, had no such gains for Labour. The results there were Conservatives 39%; Labour 33%; Liberal Democrats 18%. The Tory lead of 7% was little changed from YouGov’s two previous polls (7% lead on 26th June; 6% lead on 26th May).

You can analyse these moves or the lack of them, years before a general election, as much or as little as you want. The markets have, as they say in the City, taken the news in their stride: the Tories (0.95/1) remain narrow favourites over Labour (1.08/1) to be the largest party in the next parliament.

Philip Grant
Guest editor

Mike Smithson returns on 10th July.