Boost for Cameron as he reflects on his first six months in the job A Mori poll in the Sun this morning has some remarkably good news for David Cameron as he ends his first half year as leader. The projected vote shares are with the changes on last month are: CON 41%(+5), LAB 31%(-1), LD 18%(-3). Such vote shares at a General Election would, according to the Baxter calculator, produce a Commons of CON 344 seats: LAB 251: LD…
Could next year’s Assembly elections see a non-Labour coalition? In all the chatter regarding the “Blair legacy†nobody seems to mention devolution. The West Lothian question raises its head on a regular basis now that England is governed by a party elected by Scottish and Welsh electors but nobody seriously suggests devolution be reversed. However Blair’s legacy could include the loss of Labour’s Welsh heartland. West of Offa’s Dyke there are a good few questions to be asked and answered…
YouGov: 56% of Labour members want Prescott to stay With the Observer reporting that Gordon Brown has been warned that his “long quest to become Labour leader and Prime Minister is at risk from the rising star of Alan Johnson..” there’s been a big move to the Education Secretary in the betting markets. After Johnson started yesterday at 10/1 to become next Labour leader the price has tightened overnight to 6/1. One bookmaker is still quoting 14/1 though that won’t…
The move to the Tories continues The period from and including May 4th to June 1st produced a large crop of by-elections (37 in total). Of these, 25 were contested by all three parties. Over the month, the Conservatives won 24 seats – a net gain of 8, the Liberal Democrats won 6, Labour won 3 (a net loss of 3) and Independents, minor parties, and nationalists won 4, a net loss of 5. This was the best monthly performance…
Why not a Frank Luntz Cameron-Johnson test? In a review of the Labour leadership in his weekly Times column today Mathew Parris suggests that a party led by the declared Deputy contender, Alan Johnson, would be a bigger threat to David Cameron than Gordon Brown. Commenting on the former postman to Dorneywood who became General Secretary of his union Parris writes “..whenever one happens to see or listen to this man he appears well-judged, capable, moderate and likable. He is…
Can Ségo stay silent to beat Sarkozy Just six months back, you could scoop up Ségolène Royal, the dark horse of the French left, at 12/1 when the May 2007 presidential election was sure to be a slugfest between two conservatives, Dominique de Villepin and Nicolas Sarkozy. Now, after Villepin’s spectacular implosion over a trivial change to labour law and now a Watergate-like spying scandal, Royal (at 11/4) looks like the only thing standing in the way of Sarkozy as…
Is this the prelude to something bigger? Alan Johnson, the 13/1 second favourite to become Tony Blair’s successor, is making a move this weekend that will heighten his profile within the party and could well be a springboard to a top job bid. A much-trailed interview to be shown on GMTV on Sunday has him declaring that his interest in becoming Deputy – should John Prescott step down. He says; “People have asked me if, when there is a vacancy,…
But what if the poll is as accurate as the Hartlepool one? An opinion poll by NOP for ITV isuggests that Labour is on target to win back what was its safest seat in Wales – Blaenau Gwent – in the coming parliamentary by-election. Such a result would restore Labour’s Commons majority to what it was before the Dunfermline loss and ease some of the jitters within the party. In a phone survey of with a sample of 1,000 NOP…