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Month: June 2006

Labour gets three points closer with Mori

Labour gets three points closer with Mori

[Updated 0730] “Nearly one in four Labour supporters want their party to lose” The Observer carries reports this morning of a new Mori poll that shows that amongst those certain to vote – the pollster’s normal way of presenting its headline figures – the Tories had a 7% lead. The online version carries only a few details but those forking out £1.60 for the print edition edition get little extra information for their cash. Although there are fancy colour graphics…

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Guest slot on Northern Ireland politics by Ian Jones

Guest slot on Northern Ireland politics by Ian Jones

Could Cameron or Brown have to rely on the DUP? Does Northern Ireland matter you may ask? Surely it’s just an obscure backwater that elects charming MP’s like Ian Paisley and Martin McGuinness? Well maybe, but it’s important in that there are 18 Parliamentary seats in Northern Ireland. At the last election the split was: DUP 9: Sinn Fein 5: SDLP 3: UUP 1. Sinn Fein does not take its seats, so effectively there are currently 13 MP’s from Northern…

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The Great Unknown: What’s Gordon like under fire?

The Great Unknown: What’s Gordon like under fire?

Could he become PM without ever having to face a grilling? One of the hardest things about trying to predict the next General Election is that, extraordinarily, we know so little about Gordon Brown. If, as is his plan, he manages to move into the top job without having to go through the ardours of fighting a leadership election he will have managed to by-pass, yet again, situations where he would have faced fierce questioning. For as both the Tories…

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Which leader should be most worried about Bromley?

Which leader should be most worried about Bromley?

Tony Blair – will beating UKIP for 3rd place blunt the Brown attack dogs? We saw after the May locals how the impatient Brownites were ready to pile in to challenge Tony’s leadership after Labour’s disappointing results. If Bromley goes badly two weeks today will they be ready to pounce again? Aftter May 4th there appeared to be a concerted campaign to raise the temperature – but with no clear end game strategy. Maybe there might be something different this…

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Was Rawnsley just wishful thinking on Cameron?

Was Rawnsley just wishful thinking on Cameron?

Has the “Tory leader in steep decline” claim got any foundation? In a feature on David Cameron and Tories in the Observer Andrew Rawnsley made this assertion – the peg for most of the article:- “To the concern of his circle, there are already signs that his novelty is wearing thin. His personal approval ratings are in steep decline.” This has sparked off much discussion on the site and in a number of Lib Dem blogs particularly those that backed…

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US Election update by Ben Surtees

US Election update by Ben Surtees

Are we seeing a return of the Midterm Blues? Following the spate of difficulties that the Bush Administration has faced in recent months – Iraq, Katrina, immigration, Abramoff etc – the President has now got to face the midterm elections this November. Then he’ll see the entire House of Representatives, one third of the Senate and a host of statewide posts up for election. Historically, American voters have seen the midterms as an opportunity to express dissatisfaction with their incumbent…

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Baxter predicts the Lib Dems down to just 24 seats

Baxter predicts the Lib Dems down to just 24 seats

But who is right in the battle of the seat predictors? The latest prediction from Martin Baxter – the ex-Cambridge and now City mathematician who runs the Electoral Calculus site – suggests that the next General Election would produce a Commons with CON 305 (+107): LAB 285 (-71): LD 24 (-38) seats. This would leave the Tories on the current boundaries 19 MPs short of an overall majority. Martin produces his prediction from a “poll of polls” that he maintains…

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Could Gordon be accused of “flip-flopping” over football?

Could Gordon be accused of “flip-flopping” over football?

Has he made the right call over England’s World Cup bid? You can’t help but feeling a bit sorry for Gordon over the timing of the World Cup. There he is in the final stages of his plan to take over the Labour leadership and along comes the contest which in the UK is the ultimate “English-fest”. With the question mark over his appeal to the electors as a whole being the main obstacle standing in the way of the…

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