New poll shows Ming’s party continuing to recover

The second YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph in a week has the following shares with comparisons on the poll published on Monday – CON 39 (nc): LAB 33 (+1): LD 18 (+1).

It really is rather odd that the paper feels it necessary to commission two polls from the same pollster in less than a week and then to publish it on the morning of the by-election news. What’s the Telegraph up to?

Comparing this survey with the YouGov poll in May the Lib Dems are two points ahead reflecting a positive response, perhaps, to the more positive policy announcements that we have seen in recent weeks.

What’s been surprising is how much coverage the party has been getting for it’s annoucements on issues such tax links with green issues and the opposition to nuclear power. Normally the Lib Dems find it very hard getting noticed on policy matters. My understanding is that the Ming Campbell leadership has instituted big changes in this area of the party and the results are beginning to show.

After his Bromley bruising overnight there’s some encouragement for David Cameron in the poll. To the “Who would make the best Prime Minister” question he polled 30% to Blair’s 28%. According to the Telegraph Cameron is the first of five successive Tory leaders to achieve a higher rating than Labour on this point. Ming Campbell’s figure of 6% compares with the 18% that Charles Kennedy was recording at the General Election.

So the Lib Dems seem to prosper in spite of what people are telling pollsters about their leader.

YouGov provides little comfort this morning for the Chancellor reinforcing what we have seen in other surveys from a range of pollsters that Labour will fare worse at the General Election under Brown.

A total of 16% in the sample said that Labour led by Brown would make them more likely to vote Labour against 22% who said it would them less likely. The respondents divided by 24-23 over whether Brown would do better than Blair.

As I have repeatedly said here Brown needs some better polling numbers on him personally before he can be absolutely certain of taking the leadership. In my judgement Labour will not elect some who is seen to be a loser.

I’m off on holiday. Just to note that I am going to France to watch the cycling for the next week and a bit and Philip Grant (Book Value) will be acting again as guest editor. He can be contacted here. Once again I am most grateful to Philip for standing in and giving me a break.

Mike Smithson