And it’s 44-38 on a straight Cameron-Brown choice

A new YouGov poll in today’s Daily Telegraph has the following with changes on four weeks ago: CON 39 (+1): LAB 32 (nc): LD 17 (+1).

When asked which they would prefer a Cameron-led Tory party or a Brown-led Labour the Tories win 44-38. This compares with a 45-36 lead when asked to choose between a Cameron-led Tory party and a Blair-led Labour.

Although these were not voting intention questions but a forced choice they should bring some comfort to the Brown camp. The problem is that when voting intention question with named party leaders are asked then the polls that have carried out surveys show the Labour deficit increasing

This survey should not be confused with what ICM and Populus have been doing on the same issue. Forced question do not tell you how people will vote.

The Lib Dems will be pleased that there has been a small recovery from the pollster that has been consistently giving them the worst ratings.

The Tories will be pleased about the resilience of their lead which is now quite substantial.

Labour will be pleased that at least there is the prospect of something better with a new leader.

Mike Smithson