Labour recover to 34% but the Lib Dems still stuck on 18%

A day and a half after the Observer published outline details of this month’s Mori poll survey the pollster has now published full information on its site.

So instead of the bare “Tories are 7% ahead” that the Observer reported we now have the full figures which are with comparisons on the pollster’s last survey at the end of May are:- CON 41% (nc): LAB 34%(+3): LD 18% (nc).

The main change has been a big reduction in the “others” total which has given Labour a 3% boost. The other numbers stay the same. The face-to-face survey ran from June 8-12 so it started on the same day that the Lib Dems launched their new tax plan.

Like all Mori surveys the headline figures relate only to those saying they are certain to vote. Taking the whole sample Labour has a one point lead. The pollster uses this rigid turnout filter but does not use past vote weighting – a measure adopted by most other firms to ensure they have a politically representative sample.

It will be interesting to see how Mori compares with the Guardian ICM poll for June which should be out this week or next. ICM has pioneered past vote weighting and tends to be much less volatile than Mori.

What I cannot undersand is why the Observer, which commissioned Mori, should have failed to put even the most basic information in their story yesterday. Pathetic.

Mike Smithson