Will tomorrow’s survey have bad news for Blair?

If the Populus monthly poll for the Times is following its normal schedule then the May survey should be out tomorrow. The interviews will have been taking place over the weekend while all the speculation and talk of a Labour civil war was dominating the air waves.

Often surveys that take place in such a heated atmosphere produce extraordinary results and the Times has a reputation for running its polls big.

So if there is a big shift away from Labour or some other finding about Blair himself then it’s likely to be splashed over the front page and could have a big political impact.

It could provide an extra weapon for those Labour MPs who have clearly decided that now is the moment to oust their leader.

Blair could be helped by the past vote weightings that Populus operate which in recent months have produced the best picture for Labour.

The price on Blair hanging on until the end of next year has eased to 3.2/1.

Mike Smithson