When are we going to see betting on next week’s elections? With so many unpredictable factors and the main polls painting completely different pictures there looks as though there will be shocks of some sort in next week’s local elections. A lot could depend on the outcome for the three main party leaders. For Ming Campbell a successful May 4th will be the ideal start to his term as party leader. But what are we to make of the polls?…
ICM has Lib Dems up three – Labour down three The monthly ICM poll for the Guardian this morning records a big increase in Lib Dem support at the expense of Labour. The shares are compared with the last ICM poll three weeks ago CON 34%(-1): LAB 32%(-3): LD 24%(+3). This is a huge boost for the Lib Dems ahead of the local elections less than two weeks away and is the biggest ICM share for the party for two…
How the party’s “Dave the Chameleon” boosts the Tories In 1997 when Labour won its first land-slide victory more than 80% of the population were without multichannel television and had to rely on just four channels for their information and recreational needs. Audiences for the then main TV news bulletins – BBC1 at 9pm and the ITN News at Ten – were vast compared with what their equivalents get today. We’ve now reached a stage where two out of every…
Boundary Changes : The Great Leveller or An Unfair Advantage? Since the Second World War there have been seven boundary changes to the United Kingdom parliament. Some have been caused by changes in the UK constitution (for instance the reduction of the Scottish seats) and some have been caused due to the underpopulation of urban centres and the overpopulation of rural areas, but do these changes favour any one party or do they reflect the whole country? Ted Heath won…
Is the 2.9/1 “Tories getting a majority” price worth taking? In the thread yesterday Marcus Wood, one the PB.C’s most long-standing contributors and pictured above when he stood for the Tories at Torbay in 2005, posted the following comment:- +++ BIG NEWS +++ I have broken the habit of a lifetime (no betting)and just opened an account on Betfair and placed a bet on an overall Con majority. I have to say to anyone not having done it before it…
The US pollster puts the three leaders and Gordon under the microscope The BNP story has somewhat overshadowed the latest focus group on Newsnight by the US pollster, Frank Luntz which was screened in two parts. These always make good television and the positive reactions of the panel last October played a big part in David Cameron’s bid for the Tory leadership. In the latest studies – available to watch here – Luntz tests the views of floating voters to…
Competition Time I am offering a £40 Amazon gift voucher to anyone who comes closest to predicting accurately the London Borough Election Results. It is quite straightforward. Each contestant will receive one point for guessing correctly the political control of each London borough after May 4th. You have five choices: Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, Other, or No Overall Control. No Overall Control means failure by any one party to win more than half of the seats on an authority. Thus,…
But is this just the YouGov “magnifier” working again? In a poll that will send shock waves throughout British politics a YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph today puts support for the British National Party up from just above zero to seven per cent. In echoes of the internet pollster’s surveys in May 2004 showing a huge surge for UKIP ahead of the Euro elections YouGov has the following shares with changes on last month: CON 33%(-3), LAB 35%(-1), LD17%(-1),…