Will their troubles take the pressure off the leadership?

Another month is nearly at an end and I am another month closer to winning my bet that Lucky Tony will still be in his job at the end of next year.

May 4th 2006 was always going to be a tricky hurdle to negotiate. Within a few days of Lucky’s General Election triumph last year so-called “smart opinion” had it that if Lucky did survive 2005 then Labour’s losses in this year’s local elections were going to be on such a scale that the party would rise against him if he tried to cling to office.

Well given the polls of this week it’s beginning to look as though the prediction of Labour’s performance in the local elections will be accurate. The party is in for a drubbing a week today. But what about Lucky? Will he be blamed? Possibly – but not by enough to cause him to be removed.

For this he can thank his Home Secretary, Charles Clarke and the Deputy Prime Minister, John Prescott. Their “little local difficulties” added to Patricia Hewitt’s forced abandonment of a televised speech to nurses causes the Guardian this morning to call it Triple whammy Wednesday which all helps Lucky.

The beauty of the current situation from Lucky’s point of view is that when Labour is licking its wounds after the elections a week tomorrow – others will also get the blame. And the more the blame can be spread the less vulnerable he is.

The latest price on Lucky being there at the end of 2007 in the “When will he go” markets is 2.8/1. This continues to be a great value bet – and twenty months until you pick up your winnings is not too long to wait.

The other great Lucky Tony bet is on him outlasting Margaret Thatcher at Number 10. This means him holding on until November 2008 and William Hill have this at 13/2. You will probably have to phone.

Meanwhile following the call yesterday for local election betting markets to be opened one bookmaker began offering odds on the outcome in different London boroughs. At the moment these markets seem to be down but check here to see if they are restored.

PLEASE if you are betting on this or any event political or not then I would very grateful if you could use the links on the site. We get a small commission to help towards the cost of running PB.C and every little helps.

Mike Smithson