It’s 3-1 that he’ll be out by the end of the year

There’s a lively market developing on the US-focused Tradesports betting exchange on whether Donald Rumsfeld will hold onto his job beyond the end of the year.

With six retired US generals calling for him to go because of the way he has handled Iraq the issue of the Defence Secretary’s future has now been taken up by Democratic Presidential hopeful Bill Richardson.

The Pentagon PR machine is fighting back and this is being reflected in the betting.

As a general rule George Bush is loyal to his team even in the face of fierce criticism the individuals usually involved hold on. Karl Rove and Dick Cheney are two people who have had Tradesports resignation markets opened on their future and who have survived.

Unless something new and dramatic emerges Rumsfeld will surely hold on.

Mike Smithson