Tories up 2 – Labour down 2 – LDs no change

With the David Cameron set to make his first Tory conference speech since his election as leader there’s news of a recovery in the party’s position from ICM – the UK’s leading telephone pollster.

The last time ICM reported, in the Sunday Telegraph a fortnight ago, the party was down at the General Election level of 33% four points behind Labour. The latest numbers are:- CON 35%(+2): LAB 35%(-2): LD 21%(nc).

So of the main pollsters YouGov and ICM have the two main parties level with Populus putting Labour two points ahead. Mori – which does not weight its samples by past vote or party identifier – has Labour five points ahead.

The full details are not yet available and we do not know if a Cameron-Brown voting intention question was put but when asked who has the qualities to make a good Prime Minister Brown was at 37% to Cameron’s 32%. On toughness Brown led by – 61% to 29%.

If previous ICM polls are anything to go by then the sample for these questions would not have been the same as the headline voting intention shares which take into account likelihood to vote. This is likely to have magnified the Brown margin.

For the Tories there will be some relief to be back at level-pegging with Labour after the two previous ICM polls had them trailing.

For Labour there’ll be some relief that the figures are not worse and some reassurance over the Brown personal ratings.

For the Lib Dems there might be a touch of disappointment not to have made progress given the problems that Labour and the Tories have had over the loans affair.

Also out overnight was some research for Newsnight suggesting that the Tories might not do as well in the May local elections as they might be hoping but that the Lib Dems are set for a boost. This was based on an analysis of local by-election results. There was an interesting discussion on the previous thread.

Given that the main political game ahead of local elections is to dampen expectations the Newsnight figures will not be welcomed by Ming Campbell but are a gift to Cameron and Osborne – provided they exceed them.

Mike Smithson