Boost for Blair as MPs prepare to vote on Education Bill

According to Channel 4 News the March ICM poll to be published tomorrow in the Guardian shows a big move back to Labour and has the party back in the lead for the first time since David Cameron became Tory leader.

The top-line figures announced on the programme had with changes on last month: CON 34 (-3): LAB 37 (+3): LD 21 (nc).

The last time Labour enjoyed a lead with ICM was in November – a fortnight before the Tory leadership result was announced.

There’s little doubt that this will be seen as a big blow to David Cameron although, as we always advise, you should not reach a conclusion on the basis of just one poll.

The political impact could be to reinforce Tony Blair’s position during this very difficult week.

Blair’s clear desire to set his own time-table for when he steps down is affected by the polls. For what’s the point of pressing for an early leadership change if there is no certainty that Labour’s position will be maintained?

Putting these latest shares into Martin Baxter’s calculator produced a predicted Labour majority of 70.

No other data is available and this post will be updated once further details are published.

Mike Smithson