Browsed by
Month: January 2006

Populus data shows Tories up a fifth since the Election

Populus data shows Tories up a fifth since the Election

Another way of looking at the survey information With the big question in British politics today being how the Tories are doing under their new leader the opinion polls are being scrutinised more closely than usual. In the raw data for this week’s Times poll a total of 229 respondents told Populus that they had voted Tory at the General Election – just eight months ago. But 277 people in the survey, in excess of fifth more, said they would…

Read More Read More

The men who’ve made the nomination rules a nonsense

The men who’ve made the nomination rules a nonsense

Don’t back anybody supported by these three Introducing Mike Hancock, John Hemming and Paul Rowen – the three Lib Dem MPs who are said to be coming to the rescue of leadership candidates who cannot find fellow MPs to nominate them. Under the contest rules agreed only in September 2005 all candidates have to have the support of 10% of the parliamentary party before they can get on the ballot. At the time it was seen as a way of…

Read More Read More

Hughes moves into the 3rd favourite slot

Hughes moves into the 3rd favourite slot

After what must surely be the busiest day of betting ever on a Lib Dem leadership contest the party president, Simon Hughes has now moved into the favourite slot – ahead of the early well backed former odds-on favourite – the 64 year old Ming Campbell. But the betting sensation of the past 36 hours, the former Euro MP who has only been at Westminster for nine months, Chris Huhne is now well established as third favourite. The day has…

Read More Read More

Is Chris Huhne the Lib Dem Cameron?

Is Chris Huhne the Lib Dem Cameron?

From 300/1 to 16/1 in just 24 hours In one of the most staggering political betting moves ever the price on the former Guardian and Indy journalist, Chris Huhne, becoming Lib Dem leader has, as the chart shows, tightened from 300/1 to just 16/1 in the course of 24 hours. Behind this market activity was a growing view, reinforced by his appearance at Prime Minister’s Questions yesterday, that Sir Menzies Campbell, the 64 year-old interim leader may not be the…

Read More Read More

Punters dump Campbell after lacklustre PMQ debut

Punters dump Campbell after lacklustre PMQ debut

Commons appearance raises doubts on the interim leader When Sir Menzies Campbell became interim leader of the Lib Dems on Saturday afternoon he must have thought that being in the job would play a big part in helping him in the leadership election campaign. It certainly gave him an opportunity to shine because this afternoon he was able stand in the Lib Dem leader’s position at Prime Minister’s Questions. The general verdict was that his performance was “lacklustre” and some…

Read More Read More

Could Gordon go the way of David and Charles?

Could Gordon go the way of David and Charles?

Brown “next leader price” continues to ease Until the start of October it looked almost certain that the party leader line-up for the next General Election would be David Davis, Charles Kennedy and Gordon Brown. There was no specific betting market on this notion but Davis was a heavy odds-on favourite to take over from Michael Howard, Kennedy had seen off the doubters after a rather troubled party conference and the best price you could have got on Gordon Brown…

Read More Read More

Lib Dems drop 3 points with Populus

Lib Dems drop 3 points with Populus

Could the collapse encourage a Campbell Coronation? The January Populus Poll is out in the Times this morning and shows CON 36 (+1): LAB 39 (+1): LD 16 (-3). So the big move since before Christmas has been away from the Lib Dems. This is likely to have a big impact on the party’s MPs as they consider whether to nominate another candidate so that there is a contest. Would a protracted leadership election provide a poll boost like that…

Read More Read More

Will Hughes and Oaten risk being humiliated?

Will Hughes and Oaten risk being humiliated?

Revised YouGov figures reinforce their dilemma With Charles Kennedy calling for a contest to decide his replacement the party President, Simon Hughes, and the party’s Home Affairs spokesman, Mark Oaten have yet to say whether they want to fight Menzies Campell to join David Cameron and Tony Blair in the line line-up of main party leaders. With the best price available on Menzies Campbell being just 0.53/1 punters have made the 64 year old Edinburgh lawyer a strong favourite. His…

Read More Read More