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ICM and YouGov put the Tories into the lead

Two new polls for tomorrow’s Sunday papers show that the Tories are now ahead. ICM in the Sunday Telegraph has with changes on the last survey from the pollster in November CON 37%(+4): LAB 35%(-3)LD 21%(+2). YouGov has, with changes on the poll that was published in Tuesday afternoon CON 37%(+1): LAB 36%(nc):LD 18%(nc).

For David Cameron and his team the ICM figures must be particularly pleasing. Excluding the extraordinary month of the fuel protests in September 2000 the 37% Tory share is the highest for the party in an ICM survey since February 1993. It is also the first time since January 1993 that the pollster has had the Tories in the lead.

In another question ICM how people would vote assuming that Gordon Brown was Labour leader – the split was; CON 40%, LAB 37%, LD 18%. So the Tory lead over Labour is bigger with Gordon in charge. The big sufferers from a Brown leadership appear to be the Lib Dems who see their total drop by three points.

YouGov found a similar reaction in their Tuesday survey on reactions to Gordon Brown who has taken a totally different tack in his approach to the Cameron leadership than Tony Blair.

These polls have, of course, come at the end of an extraordinary week and we need to wait a month or so before drawing firm conclusions.

So far, at least, punters seem unimpressed. The General Election “most seats” market has not moved.

UPDATE NOTE. We think that there might be more polls tomorrow and this article will be updated.

Mike Smithson