Poll boost as Cameron starts the leadership cycle

A YouGov poll taken yesterday and today for Sky News has with changes on the last survey from the pollster last month CON 36: LAB 36: LD 18

The survey comes on good day for the controversial internet pollster. YouGov’s final poll of Tory members for the leadership contest was within one per cent.

To another question in in the latest poll “The next general election will probably not be held until 2009 or 2010. Suppose the leaders of the main parties at that time are Gordon Brown (Labour), David Cameron (Conservative) and Charles Kennedy (Liberal Democrat). How do you think you would vote at that election?” the split was:- CON 38: LAB 33: LD 18

In spite of this those surveyed still think that Gordon Brown is more likely to be Prime minster after the next election. A total of 43% said he was almost certain or more likely to be at Number 10 against a rating for Cameron of 19%.

And those surveyed split 45-37 in agreeing with the following – “Because he went to Eton, David Cameron cannot understand what it is like for most people to grow up in Britain these days”

So far, however, gamblers are being cautious. The current PB.C General Election Index based on calculating the implied probability of Labour victory from the betting odds is still at 58% – no movement since the weekend.

This survey has taken place in extraordinary circumstances and it will be well into the New Year before we can get a clearer view of the impact of the new leader.

Mike Smithson