Still not through the 33% ceiling Tucked away in the Guardian today is the November ICM poll showing CON 33(NC)LAB 38 (+2)LD. Given the high profile that the Tory leadership contest has had in the media this must be something of a disappointment to the party. The 33% share is what the party achieved in the General Election itself and is just one point higher than what ICM recorded in their final pre-May 5th survey. In one way it might…
Has the PM turned the corner after the Terror Bill defeat? The collective view of people prepared to risk their money predicting political outcomes is that Tony Blair has a 22.7% chance of completing the majority of a normal third term as Prime Minister. Using implied probabilities based on historical and current betting prices we are making a regular feature of how punters are rating the key political issues. Our first – the betting market assessment of Labour winning most…
Could “Daily Mail-speak” be having less influence? Will Labour’s first big Labour onslaught on David Cameron after, as expected, he becomes Tory leader on December 6th be on illegal drugs. Not only would an attack focus further on the ambivalence of the 39 year-old’s personal statements but it’s the one policy area where he has said a lot on the record that Labour spinners could use against him. For one aspect of Cameron’s relative lack of front bench experience is…
Punters give Labour a 57% chance of winning most seats In spite of the emergence of David Cameron, the higher media profile over the leadership election and Tony Blair’s first ever Commons defeat punters still make Labour a very strong favourite to come out top at the next General Election. Our latest chart based on best betting prices shows how punters are viewing the party’s election chances whenever it is held. The implied probability of a Labour victory is, like…
.. Might David Milband and Ed Davey benefit from the “Cameron effect”? One side effect of the emergence of David Cameron for the Tory leadership has been a change on the betting markets for the Labour leadership. The 54 year old Gordon Brown remains, of course, the red-hot odds on favourite but in recent weeks there’s been money going on the 40 year old Minister of State for Communities and Local Government, David Miliband who joined the Cabinet in May….
Betting price set to tighten even further The heavy betting in recent days on David Cameron winning the Tory leadership should continue this morning after getting a pretty good press following his combative interview with Jeremy Paxman on Newsnight. In the Times, under the headline “Paxman’s cocktail of rudeness fails to shake Cameron” Ann Treneman amusingly describes the opening when Cameron was asked if he knew what a “Pink Pussy was”. She goes on “…Dave relaxed (always a mistake). “Oh,…
Will Cameron survive the “ordeal by Newsnight”? Six months and ten days after the marathon Tory leadership started the the look on Davis’s face says it all. After being front-runner for so long and then seeing the events in Blackpool turn the contest on its head is there anything he can hope for from the campaign’s final set piece tonight when David Cameron faces Jeremy Paxman on Newsnight? For if there is going to be a last minute upset then…
What are we to make of the “Blair going” market moves? The implied probability, based on best betting prices, of Tony Blair leaving by the end of this year – within six weeks – has started rising again following the big surge last week after the 90-day detention defeat. The chart maps how punters have being viewing Blair’s possible imminent departure Meanwhile the bookmakers, William Hill, have reported taking string of bets from punters who believe an announcement that Tony…