Still not through the 33% ceiling

Tucked away in the Guardian today is the November ICM poll showing CON 33(NC)LAB 38 (+2)LD. Given the high profile that the Tory leadership contest has had in the media this must be something of a disappointment to the party.

The 33% share is what the party achieved in the General Election itself and is just one point higher than what ICM recorded in their final pre-May 5th survey.

In one way it might be useful for the Cameron camp because it is a further reminder that the party has a huge mountain to climb. There will be big expectations when the 39 year old takes over on December 6th and each poll will be analysed closely to see if he is making a difference.

The poll will also be a disappointment to the Liberal Democrats who have been rather crowded out of the media in recent weeks. Even the latest change on tax thinking did not command the attention it might have done.

For Labour the maintenance of a solid ICM poll rating will be a welcome reassurance following all the rumpus over the defeat on the Terror Bill. It might also take the pressure of Tony Blair.

Mike Smithson