Is it worth betting on Blair being defeated?

With the crucial vote taking place later today on the Terror bill William Hill are offering odds of 1/2 that Tony Blair’s 90 day detention period for terrorist suspects will become law. The bookmaker is also offering 6/4 that the measure will not make it on to the statute book at this attempt.

This is quite a tough one to call because even if it does go the Government’s way today the bill still has to go to the House of Lords. It will be recalled that in the weeks before the General Election there was a big tussle between upper and lower houses at Westminster on a similar issue which finally ended up with a compromise.

There’s no doubt that Tony Blair’s legendary powers of persuasiveness have played a major part in boosting the Government’s position today.

So far the William Hill market does not seem to be online.

Populus Poll update. Andrew Cooper of Populus has confirmed to me that the 50%-37% lead that Davis has over Cameron amongst Tory supporters is correct? One or two people had contacted me to suggest that a mistake had been made. The full data-set from the poll will be put up on the Populus site later in the day.

Mike Smithson