Amended

Cameron 4-1 ahead amongst Tory voters

The scale of the challenge facing the next Tory leader – whether Davis or Cameron – is reflected in the October YouGov survey for the Telegraph showing that Labour’s lead is unmoved at 8 points over the past month. The shares are LAB 40: CON 32. As yet there is no figure for the Lib Dems available on-line.

A consolation for the Tories is that it could be worse. At this stage after the 2001 General Election just after IDS had been made leader and in the weeks after 9/11 ICM had Labour 17 points ahead while MORI was showing 32 points.

Today’s YouGov survey was carried out this week after the huge publicity boost from the Blackpool conference and leadership contest had died down. Unlike earlier polls by the firm restricted to Tory members this is YouGov’s standard monthly survey.

On Cameron versus Davis the poll confirms the evidence of other surveys that the younger man is seen as by far the best prospect for the party. His media skills are rated very highly by both Tory and all voters.

Tory voters split 56-16 in his favour and he is rated at 68-10 as “coming over better on TV“. The Tory supporters split 55-18 and 55-19 on Cameron “being a more formidable challenge to Blair and Brown” and “would be a better PM”.

All voters rate Cameron at 34-13 and 44-10 as coming over better on TV. The 39 year old has a 34-14 lead on being a more formidable challenge to Brown/Blair and 32-13 on the “better PM” question

What Davis needs desperately is a poll showing that his campaign is on the turn. The Tory membership is looking for a potential election winner and there’s little polling evidence to suggest that this could be him.

The attempt to seize the news agenda following the changes to his team sees a further proposal today with him promising to “reverse Labour’s £5 billion-a-year tax grab on pension funds”. This is the main lead in the Telegraph – the paper that played a major part in the IDS campaign in 2001. This follows the tax plan announcement yesterday. Certainly having professionals running Davis’s media relations is having an impact although this has hardly showed in the betting. Maybe he ought to have brought the team in much earlier before Cameron had captured the media’s attention.

Even so a new Davis story a day might have an impact in the week leading up to the ballot forms going out.

The best bookie prices are 1/12 Cameron and 13/2 Davis. The betting exchanges have 0.13/1 Cameron and 7.2/1 Davis.

Mike Smithson