As we said this morning the current prices on Cameron winning are so tight that it has reached the stage where the return might not be worth the risk. If you can get £100 on the current Betfair level of 1.58 a winning bet would produce only £58 profit less commission.

On IG’s Binary spread-market, which has just re-opened, the Cameron spread is 58-66 which is even tighter.

But there is a great opportunity on Sporting Index’s BetHilo spread market on the age of the next Tory leader. The current spread is 49-51. If Cameron, who is 39 years old, wins you would get ten times your stake level if you “sold” at 49. But if it goes to Davis, who will still be 56 when the result is announced in December, you would lose just seven times your stake level.

The main risk would be if the 65-year old Ken Clarke did it – in which case your loss would be 16 times the stake level.

To find the bet click on the “specials” section on BetHiLo’s market list. The bookie will only allow you to bet £4.16 per unit but as far as I can see you can place as many bets as you want.

Mike Smithson