Could her coalition win after all? When we first covered the German General Election just seven weeks ago everything seemed rosy for the former physicist turned politician, Angela Merkel. At the time her CDU/CSU grouping was scoring 44% in the opinion polls and she looked set to be the next Chancellor with a coalition deal with the FDP, then rating at 7%. At the time Schroeder’s SPD was languishing on 26% and everything appeared to be fairly settled. It was…
Are the calls for him to quit quickly going to have an effect? With the trade union movement gathering for the TUC congress there’s pressure this morning on Tony Blair to step aside sooner rather than later. Union leaders want him out of Downing Street within a year. This follows comments on Wednesday by the boss of the TUC, Brendan Barber, that the Prime Minister should stand down in in time to have a smooth transition ahead of the next…
Revised 1315 Could the members poll that got it right in 2001 be right this time as well? A YouGov poll of Tory party members in the Telegraph this morning shows that the gap between David Davis and Ken Clarke is much closer than the betting odds suggests and that by one measure the former Chancellor is ahead. This poll has to be taken seriously because in 2001 a similar survey by YouGov predicted a 61:39 split between Ian Duncan…
“Home Secretary planning to run for the leadership” – Independent While all the UK political focus has been on the Tory leadership a feature by John Rentoul in the Independent today speculates that Gordon Brown might not have the easy ride to 10 Downing Street that most commentators have been predicting. In it he states Charles Clarke is planning to run for the Labour leadership when Tony Blair steps aside before the next General Election. Rentoul contrasts Gordon Brown’s relative…
Has the bubble finally burst for the young Etonian? If punters have got this right then the tide has turned in the Tory leadership race with the former Chancellor, Ken Clarke, establishing himself as the main challenger to the Shadow Home Secretary, David Davis. The chart showing implied probability based on best betting odds now has Clarke RED at levels never achieved by Cameron BLUE during the three months when he was the clear second favourite. The big loser from…
But will we learn to love the internet pollster? Peter Kellner’s sometimes controversial internet polling organisation, YouGov, which was floated on the financial markets in May, has launched a series of measures designed, it appears, to get people to think of it more favourably. These include:- Hiring the leading political blogger, Anthony Wells, to be its web editor Taking over shortly Anthony’s excellent UK Polling Report site which established itself as a vital resource during the UK General election for…
revised 0800 ICM and Populus surveys send punters to Clarke again The above chart showing the implied probability of Ken Clarke winning the Tory leadership based on best betting prices illustrates the amazing volatility that there is in the markets over the former Chancellor’s prospects. After making a lot of progress following his speech last week attacking the Government on the Iraq war the Clarke price moved out sharply after weekend press comment was dismissive of his chances. Then came…
Does David Davis regret his sacrifice in October 2003? While Tories deliberate on whether MPs or party members should have the final say over the leadership it is worth recalling that 23 months ago the decision, for all intents and purposes, was made by just one man, the current favourite, David Davis. For it was his withdrawal from the race on October 29th, just 90 minutes after IDS had been ousted, that led to the former Home Secretary getting the…