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Month: August 2005

Labour’s little looming local difficulties

Labour’s little looming local difficulties

Birmingham Council House Why Labour did too well in 2002 With the main electoral cycle over for the year, the next broad ballot box test for the parties will be May 2006’s English local elections in 176 urban and rural councils. Local elections are not a perfect test of the parties’ national standings – local issues of course play their role, and turnouts are typically low. But historically they have been an opportunity for a protest vote against the government…

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Are their eyes really on second prize?

Are their eyes really on second prize?

Is it the deputy leadership the only thing that Cabinet ministers are running for? Since the sad death of Robin Cook, it’s been widely said that Gordon Brown was planning to choose Cook as his deputy when he assumed the leadership of the Labour party. No slight is remotely intended to Robin Cook – a principled and extremely gifted politician – in pointing out that it’s unlikely this was a foregone conclusion. Though the Chancellor and the former Foreign Secretary…

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Olympic gaming

Olympic gaming

What will the British political landscape look like in July 2012? It’s easy for political gambling enthusiasts to get carried away and forget how tiny a market our hobby is compared to sports betting. For example, about £150,000 of betting on the Conservative leadership has gone through Betfair so far. That’s less than 5% of the trade on Sunday’s Chelsea–Arsenal game. However, William Hill seems to be aiming at some crossover marketing, with a selection of markets themed around the…

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Sunday press roundup, 21st August 2005

Sunday press roundup, 21st August 2005

Sunday’s stories sifted As usual for August, it’s a quiet weekend for political news, but a few pieces in today’s papers will interest political gamblers. The Conservative leadership has been a reliable source of interest since May, and continues to provide stories. The talk at the moment is of whether Kenneth Clarke and David Cameron can present a united front in a “dream ticket”. The Sunday Times reports that Lord Heseltine is backing a bid led by Clarke with Cameron…

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Saturday markets update, 20th August 2005

Saturday markets update, 20th August 2005

New, moving and interesting markets this week We haven’t seen too much dramatic action in the betting on British political events this week, so let’s take a weekend look further afield. Though when we mention Helen Clark on this site, we tend to be referring to the former MP for Peterborough, there is more betting interest in her antipodean namesake. New Zealand is less than a month from its general election, to be held on 17th September. Australian bookie Centrebet…

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Does the Conservative electoral system matter to gamblers?

Does the Conservative electoral system matter to gamblers?

Would Tory members rally around a candidate rejected by MPs? Last month, the Conservative parliamentary party voted to accept a proposed change to the party’s constitution which would return to MPs the final responsibility of electing the party leader. In the last contested election, in 2001, Conservative members chose Iain Duncan Smith, despite his having come second to Kenneth Clarke in the MPs’ ballot. The constitutional amendment must be ratified by a two-thirds majority of the party’s national convention on…

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A break from all of this….

A break from all of this….

…. …. ….but we love it really This is my last posting before my wife Jacky and I travel to our holiday cottage near Biarritz in South-West France and for the next two and a half weeks Philip Grant (Book Value) will be Politicalbetting’s guest editor. September looks like being an interesting month for political gamblers. There’s the German General Election which might not be as easy for Angela Merkel as seemed probable two or three months ago. Then there’ll…

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The disappointing summer of Sir Malcolm Rifkind

The disappointing summer of Sir Malcolm Rifkind

Does John Major’s Foreign Secretary stand an earthly? Our chart based on the best betting prices showing the implied probability of Malcolm Rifkind becoming Tory leader says it all. After an early flurry in the first week or so of the campaign when it touched 10% the Rifkind figure has slipped to barely a third of that. Even Rifkind’s much publicised “Tories are defective” statement at the weekend has not given him the boost he must have hoped for. Given…

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