But will anybody risk money by going against the Lib Dems The betting exchange, Betfair, have just opened a maket on which party will win the Cheadle by-election. Unlike a conventional bookmaker Betfair is an exchange and you can only place a bet a if another punter is prepared to lay it. Betfair itself simply provides the facility. At the time of this posting there was nobody on this market offering odds on the Lib Dems. This shoulds change but…
Could the former postman and union boss make it if Brown falters? While all the focus has been on the Tory leadership race there’s been a quiet revolution taking place in the “who’ll replace Blair” betting. Because Gordon Brown is seen as such a certainty there’s been no serious examination about what would happen if, for whatever reason, the Chancellor is unable to make it to the top job. Who is next in line? Although there’s been very little betting…
Take the 4/1 on them still being there on January 1 2008 We normally don’t like very long-term bets because it usually involves you locking up your cash for years. Thus there is simply no point taking the 1/4 or 1/5 on Gordon Brown because your return is so small for the time you will be without your cash and there is always the possibility that what appears to be a near-certainty today might look different two years on. There…
Just a reminder that everybody who uses the site is welcome at the Politcalbetting post-General Election party in London on Saturday June 25th. Bookvalue – also known as Philip – is handling the organisation. People of all political allegiances are welcome and it does not matter whether or not you join in the site’s discussion forums. We are being helped by a generous contribution from IG Index which should cover some of the core costs at a venue in Central…
What was behind the party’s late recovery? It’s worth looking back at the dynamic of what happened on May 5th so that we are better able to call future elections and one element that has not really been discussed was the recovery of UKIP within the final week or so. For just seven weeks before election day the pollster that was to prove to be the most accurate, NOP, produced a survey showing that just one single person in a…
How will the result impact on the Tory and Labour leadership races? The next political event that you can bet on is for who should represent South Staffordshire at Westminster on June 23rd – a ballot that had to be put back from May 5th and delayed the return to the Commons of veteran Tory MP, Patrick Cormack, because of the death of one of the candidates. Although there’s been very little media interest in the campaign poorish results for…
Does being an old Etonian still a disqualify you from being Tory leader? Whenever the Tory leadership prospects of the Shadow Education secretary, David Cameron, are discussed on the site somone will pop and say that he is “too posh”. But is this going to hinder his chances? On November 27th 1990 the then Foreign Secretary, Douglas Hurd, came a poor third to Michael Heseltine in the Tory leadership election that saw John Major become Prime Minister. At the time…
But is it because he is the only Tory that still has “name recognition” ? A Populus Poll in the Times this morning has Ken Clarke well ahead of David Davis in the Tory leadership stakes both amongst the electorate at large and. perhaps more importantly, amongst party supporters. He beats the Shadow Home Secretary by 40% to 26% amongst the general public and by 48% to 40% amongst Conservative voters. But compared with the current second favourite, David Cameron,…