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Month: May 2005

Who’ll go first – Blair or Howard?

Who’ll go first – Blair or Howard?

Who will “win” this final contest? With leadership issues dominating both main parties in this post-election period Hills have opened a new market on which of Michael Howard or Tony Blair will stand down first. The current prices are 1/7 on Howard going before Blair and 4/1 against Blair going before Howard. With the pressure continuing to build on Mister Blair, as everybody now seems to be calling him, the 4/1 looks good value. In the Labour leadership stakes, meanwhile,…

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Was turnout distorted by postals and the register tidy-up

Was turnout distorted by postals and the register tidy-up

Our 11/4 tip was right but were our reasons wrong? What turned out to be one of our most profitable tips at the election was to go for turnout at 60% or more when the price was 11/4. We argued in February that the Iraq war had politicised more groups and the fact that it would appear to be a much tighter race would drive more people to the polls than the 59% of four years ago. Although the 61%…

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Did the pollsters do OK?

Did the pollsters do OK?

Why did the polls converge? In the big debate over internet and telephone polling many were hoping the May 5 would resolve the issue once and for all. And in the days leading upto to polling day it did look as though the two competing methodologies were presenting a very different picture of the actual vote with, at one stage, one telephone pollster reporting a 14% Labour lead. But lo and behold along comes May 5 and the forecasts all…

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The Politicalbetting Forecasters of 2005

The Politicalbetting Forecasters of 2005

How did our contestants do? Several hundred site users took part in our two competitions for the honours of being the site’s top forecasters of the 2005 General Election. Surprisingly entrants in the New Year prediction contest proved to be better at getting nearest to the eventual result than those who took part in our final week competition last Monday. New Year contestants’averages: Labour majority 63, Labour GB vote lead 3.4% Final week contestants’ averages: Labour majority 75: Labour GB…

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Will the Tories play their English card?

Will the Tories play their English card?

Howard ends up as winner on votes in England For more than a year we’ve been suggesting that a consolation prize for Michael Howard at the 2005 General Election might be that his party “wins” England. In terms of English seats this was always going to be challenging but in terms of votes there is a different picture. Although the all-UK vote split was LAB 35.2: CON 32.3: LD 22 the Tories have exceeded the Labour’s English vote total by…

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What happened to Tony Blair’s one in ten voters claim?

What happened to Tony Blair’s one in ten voters claim?

Labour loses one in seven votes and wins easily The final week of the Labour campaign was dominated by the claim that if one in ten of its voters did not vote for the party on Thursday then there would be a Tory government. Well the results are almost all in and Labour has lost considerably more than one in ten of its 2001 vote share. The final figures show a Labour vote share loss of one one in seven…

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Not another Tory leadership contest!

Not another Tory leadership contest!

Will David Davis share the same fate as other Tory front runners? Following Michael Howard announcement that he will stand down as Tory leader “sooner rather than later” the race is now on for a successor. And a wide range of bookmakers are operating online markets on the race. It is no surprise that the Shadow Home Secretary, David Davis, has been made the pre-race heavy favourite – but the nature of this contest is that the front runner almost…

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When will Tony Blair go?

When will Tony Blair go?

Is 12/1 against him not lasting the year a good bet? With only the details of the General Election to be tidied up the next political betting market to open is on Tony Blair’s future. In which year will he step down? William Hill are offering: 2005 12/1: 2006 9/4: 2007 5/4: 2008 3/1: 2009 8/1: 2010 or later 20/1 We think that the 2005 price looks like a great value bet at 12/1. If there is going to be…

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