Could there be a late swing back to OUI?

The latest polls showing gathering support for the NON position in the weekend referendum in France on the EU Constitution has seen sharp changes in the betting where the NON outcome is now the firm favourite.

The best bookmaker price is 8/11 with the Betfair market showing 0.75/1. The Spreadfair spread betting exchange on the percentage the NON side will get is showing 51-51.5% – so there’s probably better value there than with the normal bookmakers.

But a lot can happen in the final few days and with the race so close anything could still happen. Meanwhile the Telegraph reports that the leader of France’s main EU ally, the Germany’s Chancellor, Gerhard Schröder, will attend a Socialist YES rally in Toulouse.

Whether the intervention of the leader of another country will help those trying to save the constitution is a moot point. If Gerhard Schröder comes to Britiain during next year’s referendum it would, surely, be the kiss of death for those trying to get it accepted!

Mike Smithson