How did our contestants do?

Several hundred site users took part in our two competitions for the honours of being the site’s top forecasters of the 2005 General Election. Surprisingly entrants in the New Year prediction contest proved to be better at getting nearest to the eventual result than those who took part in our final week competition last Monday.

New Year contestants’averages: Labour majority 63, Labour GB vote lead 3.4%
Final week contestants’ averages: Labour majority 75: Labour GB vote lead 3.5%
Actual election result: Labour majority 66: Labour GB vote lead 3%

The Winner of the New Year’s contest will receive £150 worth of “election goodies” from Politicos while the final week winner will get £1,000 in cash placed in a betting account with Binary Bet. Thanks to both sponsors for their help. It is hoped that presentations can take place at a Politicalbetting post-election party that we are hoping to arrange in June.

The job of processing all the entries is a major task and the prizes are going to be awarded on the basis of claims from contestants. Please check your entries by clicking here for the New Year contest and here for last week’s one. If you think you have won either competition please email me at mikes245@yahoo.com before 2359 UK time on Wednesday stating the comment number in the thread where your entry is.

New Year Contest
1. Labour Majority.Average 63.01. Fifteen points for 66 seats reducing by one point either side for each seat off target.
2. Labour Lead.Average 3.4%. Ten points for 3% reducing by one point either way for each 0.25% off target.
3. Top Pollster. Entrants choice YouGov. Nobody named NOP – the actual winner. One point for those naming the joint second place firms – YouGov and Mori.
4. Bethnal Green and Bow.Entrants choice – Labour. Two points for Respect.
5. Bristol West. Entrants choice Lib Dems. Two points for Lib Dems.
6. Cambridge. Entrants choice Labour. Two points for Lib Dems.
7. Colne Valley.Entrants choice Labour Two points for Labour
8. Inverness. Entrants choice Labour Two points for Lib Dems.
9. Maidenhead.Entrants choice Lib Dems. Two points for Conservatives.
10. St Albans. Entrants choice Lib Dems. Two points for Conservatives.
11. Upper Bann. Entrants choice UUP. Two points for DUP.
12. Ynys Mon. Entrants choice PC. Two points for Labour.

The final week contest attracted many more entrants and I am grateful to Chris Martin for tabulating all the entries and producing a spreadsheet. We are still doing this on the basis of claims although you will need a good score to win. The correct answers were:-

1) Labour majority. 50 points for 66 reducing by a point for each seat out.
2) Lib Dems seats. 20 points for 62 reducing by one point for each seat out.
3) Labour vote share. 20 points 36.2% reducing by one point for each 0.25% that you are out.
4) Conservative vote share. 20 points 33.2% reducing by one point for each 0.25% that you are out.
5) Lib Dem vote share. 20 points 22.6% reducing by one point for each 0.25% that you are out.
6) Pollsters overstating Labour. 21 points for six reducing by three for each one out.
7) Nick Palmer’s vote share in Broxtowe. 7 points for 41.9% reducing by one point for each that you are out.
8) Richard Willis’s vote share in Sutton & Cheam 40.4% reducing by one point for each that you are out.
9) Charles Anglin’s vote share in Vauxhall. 7 points for 26.1% reducing by one point for each that you are out.

Mike Smithson