It’s Tony Blair with a 90 seat majority

After more than a month of the “Balance of Money” predictions the eve of poll markets show that punters are expecting Tony Blair to be returned tomorrow with a majority of 90 seats. These represent the collective view of gamblers who have been backing up their judgements with hard cash. The eve of poll figures are:-

Predicted Labour majority 90 seats (+8)

Predicted vote shares LAB 37.3 (+0.3) : CON 32.3 (-0.9): LD 22.9 (+0.2)

The market moves today follow big money going on the party in all the markets though there does tend to be a favourite effect of other punters following the money.

The Lib Dem vote share has also moved up while the Tory one has continued to decline.

The regular BALANCE OF MONEY predictions are based on how spread betting gamblers are investing their money on all the main UK markets from Spreadfair, IG Index, and Sporting Index. It should be noted that the spread markets are based on all-UK figures while the opinion polls report their figures on a GB basis excluding Northern Ireland and the latter are roughly 0.97 of the former. So a Labour spread of 37-37.5% equates roughly to 38.1%-38.6% when comparing with an opinion poll.

A full round-up of all General Election Betting is available here

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Mike Smithson